Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS61 KRNK 200750
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered rain chances this morning given later arrival of
showers and thunderstorms over western Kentucky.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted
for today, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s to the low
100s across the Piedmont.

2) A disturbance will bring the potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding across the Piedmont on Friday afternoon and
evening.

3) After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier
weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted
for today, with heat indices reaching the upper 90s to the low
100s across the Piedmont.

Starting the morning off with passing clouds and patchy river
valley fog across the mountains, but am keeping an eye on
thunderstorms over western Kentucky that are making steady
progress eastward. These still have a long way to travel, and
latest weather data has these storms weakening before reaching
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. As such, have
lowered rain chances this morning, leaving only a slight chance
of showers and storms in the forecast through lunchtime across
the mountains. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in
the forecast from this afternoon into tonight as waves of
energy passing across the lower Mid-Atlantic ride along a cold
front drifting southward from the Ohio River Valley, and believe
strong afternoon heating will allow a few storms to become
capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts this evening.

In addition, those spending extended periods of time outdoors
today, especially east of the Blue Ridge, will want to take
precautions against the warmth. Today will be the warmest day
through the middle of next week, with afternoon temperatures
across the Piedmont warming into the low to mid 90s, allowing
heat indices to reach into the upper 90s to the low 100s during
the noon to 6 PM timeframe.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A disturbance will bring the potential for heavy rain and
flash flooding across the Piedmont on Friday afternoon and
evening.

The cold front will settle across central Virginia by Friday
afternoon. Latest weather data continues to indicate an
approaching disturbance will move along the front, triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning in late afternoon,
with the highest coverage of storms occurring generally east of
a line stretching from Yadkin, NC to the City of Lynchburg.
Precipitable water values rising to 2+ inches along and south of
the front will easily support rainfall rates of at least 3
inches/hour in the stronger storms, and data suggests there is
potential for storms to pass repeatedly across the same
locations, which could cause rainfall totals to increase
quickly. Despite dry antecedent conditions across Southside
Virginia into north-central North Carolina, flash flooding will
be possible, primarily during the 6 PM to midnight timeframe,
though its possible the most intense thunderstorms and heavy
rain will remain outside our area to the south and east.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier
weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast on Saturday as yet another cold front approaches,
though the energy needed to support strong thunderstorm
development will be very limited.

A cold front is forecast to push across the lower Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday, allowing drier air to arrive for the early half of
next week as high pressure passes overhead. As high pressure
moves off the Atlantic coast on Thursday, widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will return each afternoon and evening
to finish out the week. Temperatures next week will be near
normal for the last full week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Outside of early morning river valley fog across the mountains,
predominantly VFR conditions are expected through around 04Z
Saturday. The exception will be sub-VFR conditions occurring
near the widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
this afternoon with daytime heating, more so east of the Blue
Ridge.

With the arrival of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours of
Friday morning, ceilings will trend toward low MVFR to IFR
bases, with mainly IFR ceilings becoming established areawide
by sunrise.

OUTLOOK...

Higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms is forecasted for
Friday, with continued widely scattered activity on Saturday.
This will result in sub-VFR conditions at times. Improved
flying conditions will return on Sunday into early next week as
drier air arrives across the lower Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF